WARS and by this I mean big ones, are bad for markets. Shocking if they are world ones.
In 1937 as Europe headed there Equities got slammed, Battle of Britain, even more. Pearl Harbor saw another PREMIUM demand and stocks shed another 20%.
Iran is NOT Iraq.
Iraq has been a debacle and its population is 33% of Iran. It was and has been a debacle since the second gulf invasion.
Iraq had three main groups one being the Kurds to the North, and the other the two types of Muslins with both not liking each other.
Iraq was and is basically flat. Iran resembles Afghanistan with mountains.
It has a standing army of 500,000 and 900,000 with reserves.
It is a unified one religion state.
Militarily it is at least TWICE the peak Iraq ever was.
Afghanistan and 18 years latter the ISIS and Taliban control more of the nation than they did in 2001. MORE !!
USA failed spectacularly on both counts. Totally.
Invading or making war on Iran which would be insane to take on 83 million people who already faced a proxy war not so long ago when Iraq backed by both the Soviets and USA invaded, or tried to and Iran was left with no weapons and sent waves of humans armed with tank grenades to stop bloody tanks and did so … it seems the lesson has been forgotten or lost outside IRAN …. the HUMAN sacrifice and needless loss was insane.
Of course the Shah of Iran installed by the UK and USA and his removal and subsequent hostages of the USA embassy will never be seemingly forgotten.
Much like the Cuban removal of USA interests and this relationship has gone backwards under Trump …. So too Venezuela and its nationalizing of some assets, never forgotten and the current moves have more to do with OIL there than anything else.
Iran is NOT a saint, I am not suggesting this. It is however NOT so repressive as other Muslim nations and women drive cars, without faces covered.
I also hasten to add. I don’t KNOW who damaged the ships. I do however hold great …. MASSIVE and well founded skepticism about these events as reported.
First attack was reported as a Mine attack on 4 tankers.
Being fairly well versed in military tactics and capacities, a naval mine of which Iran has 3,000 PLUS modern ones and 3,000 older ones typically are designed to stop an armored warship or inflict considerable damage on a fast moving well …. protected vessel.
They contain on average 500 kg of explosives and on a smaller warship the impacts would be devastating. On say an Aircraft carrier with 100 watertight compartments, much less so and it would take I suspect 10 or more.
These warships and mines are designed to hit fast moving at 30 knots plus targets so 50 km an hour …. or subs which move slower but with reinforced hulls similar power is needed.
So the first 4 hit a month ago, reported for weeks … weeks that mines were involved. I knew at first glace NO MINE … naval mine other than a tinker toy was involved. The damage was clearly CONTACT … as would be with a mine and the one with a hole in its rear the explosives involved were 3-5 KG or explosives NOT a mine with 500kg. It literally would blow the rear end off the ship.
Tankers moving at about half the speed of a warship. some with double hulls but NOT armored or reinforced, if they hit a contact or magnetic mine with 500 kg it would have literally blown the end off a tanker or for the other three damaged BROKEN and shattered the spine of the ship. Clearly they were NOT and never were MINES and it took two weeks if not more to it now being limpet mines which is consistent with the damage. A payload of say 3-10 kg of explosives attached magnetically with timer to go off.
With the degree of satellite surveillance and aerial surveillance in the regions it is NOT credible that it was missed now knowing someone swam to the side of the ship or rear and attached the bombs.
Anyhow …. call me cynical … with cause … weapons of mass destruction which DID not exist rings in my mind.
I don’t know, but I am skeptical on this basis.
The three behind this … Bolton who avoided military service with a passion and did serve in the national guard to avoid Vietnam, Trump who totally avoided it and lastly Pompeo who did serve and even went to West Point served as an engineer for 5 years with the tanks reaching rank of Captain. This contrasts with say past people with 30 year careers or Colin Powell with 35 years and a 4 star general with active .. service … NONE of the above have been anywhere near it.
I would add Bolton and his views on Iran well documented and him boasting as he was paid in 2016 a sum of $40,000 to speak at a USA based Iranian lobby group he would bring about regime change by 2018 in Iran.
Stuff me !!
I would point out the 9/11 attacks were a disgrace in every sense but the fact that 15 of 18 terrorists came from Saudi Arabia which practices the other type of Islam religion seems to have been forgotten as to the funding coming 100% from Saudi Arabia as well.
It had not a bloody thing to do with Iran.
I repeat I don’t think for a moment they are saints …. and I have no idea if they did these attacks. No idea … I merely mention extreme caution and skepticism and Hard facts prior to any decision being made.
Then again war forever … its the USA motto for the Military Industrial Oligarchy complex.
Iran had a valid non proliferation on nuclear deal working, then walks in Trump and tears it up.
Is he insane ?
Iran air force I am sure the USA could handle quite easily.
It actually has over 30 ultra quite submarines diesel electric which I am sure again, over time USA could take care of, but not prior to them causing mayhem. A sub lying dogoo on the seabed, is quite hard to locate. I did mention 3,000 odd modern sea mines and around 3,000 older less capable but still valid mines. Torpedo’s over 2200 is the estimate from Janes …
Navy … well again USA could handle that easily.
What I suspect it would not handle is the 1,500 short and medium range missiles. Sure they could get a few but with terrain and hiding holes well prepared, these would wreak terror in an all out conflict.
Again, if it was Iran … something needs to be done, but …. its not your normal situation.
As for 500,000 fairly competent ground forces and oodles of armored vehicles sure … at a cost … they would be able to reduce them. Say costing minimum 2 trillion … WITHOUT going into Iran. Going into Iran itself given its terrain and the past of Iran is a shame story of western intervention and despot leaders … Shah of Iran … and the IRAN IRAQ war which Iraq started …. you would be bloody mad to even think about it.
But here we have idiots with no military experience … a moron on twitter and a war even the USA can NOT POSSIBLY WIN.
It would be the defeat the Soviets got in Afghanistan, the drubbing the USA got in Vietnam. and the humiliation in Korea when China stepped in backing the North. Multiply that by TWO and that’s a low estimate on the stuff these imbeciles are provoking.
Russia I might add is at a 30 year relationship low and the Chinese about the same with similar issues and will they stand aside ?
It will be the LAST war the USA will wage if it chose to go in on the ground. It would be inadvisable in the extreme without CONCRETE irrefutable evidence to even go via the air. The propensity to inflict damage OUTSIDE Iran’s borders is considerable. A half hearted effort … the response could and I suspect would be diabolical to shipping in the gulf and most oil refineries and capacity in the region.
This latest attack.
Iran had a lot of them. Designed with shaped charges which focus the explosion and kinteic impact a torpedo on a smaller warship, armored and traveling at 50 km an hour is devastating. On a tanker going HALF that speed, not armored, with the thing full of volatile fuel would likely break the back of the back of the ship immediately.
So clearly NOT a real torpedo. Maybe James bond movie type mini torpedo and his Lamborghini the underwater one … was there.
It is of course possible …. there is a lighter type but well it seems unlikely.
Limpets mines again ?
I stress I don’t KNOW … but clearly any even basic knowledge tells us it was NOT a normal torpedo …
I note the USA claims they picked up survivors yet Iranian TV said it did and HAD PICTURES and came to the aid of the stricken vessels.
Does this sound credible or logical, the person or nation supposedly doing it is saving them ?
I just have no idea. I do know when I see the survivors and damage on TV they contradict the USA version. Damage clearly was NOT a full Torpedo.
I would add Japanese PM was in Iran at the time and suggesting they launch an attack when he was there is, well … even more … stretching things.
Someone did it. I have NO idea if it was Iran or James Bond … I merely wished to raise some potential outcomes. NONE of them good.
USA seems to think they can bully everyone from China to even Australia over tariffs and threats. twittering whilst on the toilet an invasion of Venezuela and Cuba to yet again be embargoed is the mad mad world we live in.
Time will tell.
Iran is NOT to be trifled with on a military basis. Its …. scary in every way.
Here is another view via U tube.
I repeat I have NO idea who did what. NONE … I don’t like Bolton as a blowhard warmongering idiot as is Trump and Pompeo.
If god forbid the trigger is pulled, it cannot be won by the USA. CANT. The cost would be diabolical.
Anyhow happy happy happy and await the latest VERSION of the truth as to what hit the ships and who picked them up.
Iran War Drum Beats Are THUNDEROUS
Impacts on markets whilst ignored …. and USA rose overnight, this will make Vietnam look like a picnic.
Emma is a good impartial reporter on these issues.