GBP/USD Analysis and Talking Points
- GBP/USD Awaits Confirmation for Next Leg Higher
- DUP/ERG Support Key to Passing Possible Deal
- Risks Asymmetrically Tilted to the Upside
The rally in GBP/USD has so far been maintained as optimism surrounding the prospect of a Brexit deal keeps the pair underpinned following UK PM Johnson’s and Varadkar’s joint statement that they could see a pathway to a deal before the end of the month. However, given the absence over the details of yesterday’s meeting, focus will be on the talks between Brexit Secretary Barclay and EU Chief Negotiator Barnier, in which confirmation of significant progress may well indeed push GBP/USD higher.
DUP/ERG Support Key to Passing Possible Deal
However, while optimism has boosted the Pound, hurdles do remain, most notably the DUP’s response, which will be key to improving the likelihood that an agreement can be passed through parliament. Therefore, as we await the details of the negotiated changes between Johnson and Varadkar we will be on the look out as to whether the DUP supports the current progress.
Risks Asymmetrically Tilted to the Upside
As we had highlighted in our Q4 Sterling forecast given that speculative positioning remains heavily short, risks are asymmetrically tilted to the upside as investors remain under-priced for a potential agreement the UK and EU ahead of the October 31st deadline.
GBP/USD Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (Aug 2019 – Oct 2019)
— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
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